Currently, the average daily water requirement for the water supply area, population of 1.5m, is 550 million litres.
... it is estimated that demand will increase to approximately 800 million litres between 2030 and 2040.
The need for the project
The population of the Dublin Region is growing and a likely requirement for a new major water supply source to meet projected water demand was first identified by the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government over a decade ago in the Greater Dublin Water Supply Strategic Study 1996-2016.
Current (2010) supply / demand balance in the Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) is on a knife edge with little or no spare capacity (headroom). Planned expansion of existing water treatment plants (Ballymore Eustace & Leixlip) will enable demand growth to be met in the short term (for a limited period) but the expanded water treatment facilities will not provide sufficient headroom to ensure satisfactory ‘security of supply’ to cope with potential plant outages, infrastructure failure, new ‘wet’ Intel-type industries, the effects of extended dry periods or icy conditions (as witnessed in January 2010 when severe water shortages occurred for prolonged periods).
Over the 2004 – 2010 period a range of demand scenarios were developed to assess the likely timing of supply requirements from a new source. The planned growth objectives in the Dublin & Mid East Regions (Greater Dublin Area) as envisaged in the (2010 – 2022) Regional Planning Guidelines and National Spatial Strategy form the basis for estimating the extent of water availability which must be provided in order to sustain the economic growth targets and optimise job creation potential.
Two main Demand Growth Scenarios have emerged from the analyses to date;
· Minimum Planning Scenario
· Maximum Planning Scenario
Both Scenarios are illustrated schematically below.
The Minimum Planning Scenario would indicate that supplies from a new source are likely to be required at latest by 2020 – 2022 to meet average demand growth throughout the region. The Minimum Planning Scenario assumes population growth as per the Regional Planning Guidelines, water pricing policies which encourage responsible use of water (eg. full metering and charging of all customers by 2020 – 2022), reductions in personal consumption and customer leakage, ongoing distribution-network rehabilitation and reduced network leakage, full development of all zoned land by 2040 involving a mix of ‘wet and dry’ industries.
The Maximum Planning Scenario (which was tabled for public consultation during the Strategic Environmental Assessment process), assumes population growth as per the Regional Planning Guidelines, limited metering and charging of domestic customers by 2031, low reductions in personal consumption and customer leakage, limited network rehabilitation and gradual reductions in network leakage, full development of all zoned land by 2031 involving a mix of ‘wet and dry’ industries. The Maximum Planning Scenario indicated that supplies from a new source could be required as early as 2016 in order to meet average demand growth.
Because of the lengthy time periods involved in Planning, Procurement and Construction processes, the Consultant’s recommend that planning for a new source, to be available by 2020 latest, should commence now.